Guides
Guides
Betting math in plain words
Short guides on what a bet costs, what a price is worth, and how to read a tout's claims. No picks, no hype. Start at the top and read in order, or jump to the one you need.
The basics
What a bet has to win to break even
4 min · The one number that sets the bar for every bet, and how to work it out in ten seconds.
The bookmaker's cut, and what it costs you
5 min · Why the odds on both sides of a game add up to more than 100%, and what that extra costs per dollar.
How to read your KYT result
4 min · What the grade, the red, yellow and green bar, and each number on a result mean, in plain words.
Beyond one bet
Why parlays cost more than they look
5 min · How the cut grows with every leg, and why multiplying chances only works when the legs are independent.
A win does not make it a good bet
5 min · Four numbers that get mixed up: the chance, the break-even, the expected return, and what actually happened.
The closing price: the best test of a pick
5 min · What the closing price is, why it is the best public guess at the true chance, and how to use it to check any pick.
Touts and passing
How to read a tout's record
6 min · Why a winning percentage alone cannot tell you whether a tout is any good, and a better test.
Why a smart pass is a win, too
4 min · Passing is a decision, and often the best-priced one. How to decide, and how to keep betting fun.
For entertainment and education. Nothing here predicts results or recommends a bet.