Guide
Guide · 6 min read
How to read a tout's record
A tout says they hit 62% this season. That sounds impressive. Is it? The honest answer is that you cannot tell yet, and this guide shows why, and what to look at instead.
Start with the bar
A win rate only means something next to the break-even chance for the prices the tout used. At -110 the bar is 52.4%.
Same record, different prices
55% winners at -110 earns 0.55 × $100 − 0.45 × $110 = +$5.50 per $110 bet. That is a 5% return.
52% winners at -110 loses 0.52 × $100 − 0.48 × $110 = −$0.80 per bet. It sounds like winning and still loses money.
60% winners at -250 has a bar of 71.4%. Each $250 bet averages 0.60 × $100 − 0.40 × $250 = −$40.
A record quoted without prices tells you almost nothing. Ask for the odds on every pick, not just the wins and losses.
Luck is loud
Even if a tout has no edge at all, results swing. Take someone whose picks win exactly as often as the price needs, 52.4% at -110. Over 100 bets they will usually win somewhere between 47 and 58. A 58-42 run happens to a bettor with no edge about one time in seven.
To tell a real 3-point edge from luck you need around a thousand bets. A few dozen results, or even a few hundred, cannot do it. This is why a hot month proves very little, and why a cold month proves very little too.
Three things a record can hide
1. Which bets are counted. Touts who show only the picks they sent to a premium list, or only the graded ones, have chosen their sample.
2. The price. As above, a win rate means nothing without the odds.
3. Labels. "Lock", "max play" and star ratings are about enthusiasm. They are not chances. KYT never turns them into odds.
A better test: the closing price
Just before a game starts, the pros' price has absorbed a huge amount of money and information. That last price, the closing price, is the best public guess at the true chance.
If a tout's picks regularly get a better price than where the market finishes, they are seeing something the market learns later. If they usually get a worse price, they are late to what everyone already knows, whatever their record says.
This test is quicker than counting wins, because it does not depend on how any one game ended. You write down the price when the pick is made, then compare it with the closing price. KYT's Premium tracking does that for you, but nothing here needs it. A notebook works.
Questions worth asking before you pay
• What were the odds on each pick, and when were they taken?
• Are all picks included, or only a selection?
• How many bets is this record based on?
• Is the record checked by anyone other than the tout?
None of this means a tout is bad. It means a record is a claim, and a price is a fact. KYT lets you put the claim next to the fact. What you do after that is your call, and a smart pass is a win, too.
For entertainment and education. Nothing here predicts results or recommends a bet.