Guide
Guide · 4 min read
How to read your KYT result
A KYT result can show a lot of numbers. You do not need most of them to use it. This guide explains what each one means, so that when you tap "Show the math" nothing is a mystery.
The grade
The grade is about the price, never the pick. It answers one question: how does the price you were offered compare with the fair price? A is better than fair by more than a point. B- is better than fair, by up to a point. C is about even with fair. C- is worse than fair, by up to a point. D is worse than fair by more than a point. F costs 5 cents or more for every dollar you bet.
There is no A+ on purpose. An A+ would sound like "bet this", and KYT never says that.
The bar: red, yellow, green
The bar compares two numbers. One is the break-even chance, the line the bet has to clear (see the guide on break-even). The other is the market's fair chance, which is the pros' price with the sportsbook's cut taken out (see the guide on the bookmaker's cut).
How the colors work
Green, "+ Beats it": the fair chance is more than a point above break-even.
Yellow, "~ Close": the two are within a point of each other either way.
Red, "− Costs you": the fair chance is more than a point below break-even.
Every color also has a symbol and a word, so you never have to rely on color alone.
The numbers under "Show the math"
Example: $125 to win $100 on a side the market puts at 53.0%
Break-even chance: 55.6%. That is 125 ÷ 225.
Market's fair chance: 53.0%. That is the pros' price after the cut is removed.
The gap: 2.6 points short, so the bar is red.
Expected return: −4.6 cents per dollar. That is 0.53 × 1.8 − 1.
100 bets like this: down about $575 on average. That is a long-run average, not a prediction for any one bet.
What the result does not say
A red bar does not say the bet will lose. A green bar does not say it will win. Any single bet can go either way. The result tells you what the price is worth on average, if the market is right, which is the only fair way to judge a price.
It also does not take a side on whether to bet at all. If a result says the bet costs you money and you place it anyway for the fun of it, that is your call, and now you know the price of the fun. If you pass, a smart pass is a win, too.
If there is a tout's fee in the picture, the result adds it. A pick that costs a few cents per dollar on average, plus a monthly fee, can add up to more than it looks.
For entertainment and education. Nothing here predicts results or recommends a bet.