Guide
Guide · 4 min read
Why a smart pass is a win, too
Nobody sells passes. Touts sell picks, sportsbooks sell bets, and every ad is about doing something. The result is a feeling that a day without a bet is a day wasted. It is not. Not betting is the one choice with a guaranteed cost of zero.
What a pass is worth
Most prices cost a little. On an even game at -110, the average cost is 4.5 cents for every dollar you bet. Over 100 bets of $110, that is about $500. When you pass on a bet whose price is worse than fair, you avoid that cost. A pass is not doing nothing. It is a decision with a measurable value.
A short list before you bet
1. Do I know what this bet has to win to break even? (See the break-even guide.)
2. Is the price better than the market's, about even, or worse? A red bar means it costs money on average.
3. If a tout gave me this pick, what do they charge, and what is that per pick?
4. Am I betting because the bet is good, or because I am chasing a loss, or because the game starts in five minutes?
None of these tell you to bet or not to bet. They make sure that if you do, you are choosing it.
Keep a pass log
Write down the picks you skipped, with the price. After the game, look at the closing price. If the price you passed on was worse than where it closed, your pass was a good one, even if the pick won. Over a few weeks the log shows you whether your instincts about price are good.
It also helps with a hard part: the pick you passed on will sometimes win. That does not make the pass wrong. It makes it a pass that happened to cost you the luck, not the price.
When a pass is hard
Passing is hardest right after a loss, when the next bet feels like a way to get even, and right after a win, when it feels like you cannot miss. Both feelings are about the last result. The next bet has its own price, and the price does not know what just happened to you.
It is also hard when a tout's pick is already in your head. You paid for it, so passing feels like throwing the money away. But the fee is spent either way. The only question left is whether this price is worth the stake. If the bar is red, you can keep the fee as the cost of the lesson and keep the stake.
Passing on the whole thing
Some weeks the right number of bets is zero. A schedule with no prices worth taking is not a reason to find a worse one. The games will be there next week, and so will you.
Betting is entertainment
KYT is for entertainment and education. If you bet, do it with money set aside for fun, at a size you would not miss. Decide the amount before the game, not during it.
If betting stops feeling like fun, a pass is always available. In the US, 1-800-GAMBLER is free and confidential.
For entertainment and education. Nothing here predicts results or recommends a bet.